Five countries, fifteen cases

And two hypotheses: information society transforms the Demographic Pressure,

and exports its negative consequences to less developed world

How to measure the core impact: Force of economic activity upon Natural region.

Let me suggest a simple formula: Pressure = Force / Surface. We won’t discuss its physical dimensions, but instead will focus on the fact that our unceasingly expanding society creates great pressure on natural resources, generating ever more production and population. This is a cause of greater concern, while with the advance of global warming somewhere in the 2030 the mere providing of substantial goods will be impeded in many places in the world. True, the rates of growth in the Second world have diminished in 2008 as a consequence of the recent crisis, but they are on their way of return. And despite the signs that some rebalancing in the world economic powers does occur, the natural capital is still going down in the emerging world. The main factors of this human pressure are the increased number of people and their enhanced economic activity in given area. So let us calculate that.

To gain quantitative data depicting the character of the contemporary human pressure we have in the first place to apply a monetary measure: to calculate the economic production in the regions, and also to count consumption and trade there. The GDP money represents not only the politics of the central bank. Its purchasing power is inherent in the human interactions; it shows the “possibilities of living”, the fulfillment of consumer wishes. Money means existence of goods, services and development. The enterprise profits mean in the same time environmental impacts. We know that the increase of monetary in-flows have imposed heavy environmental damages on China’s economy, but now the Asiatic power improves its mode of production as it has been made several decades earlier with the fertility control.

The other task is to define the natural characters of human settlements. Here we should count up the population density, urbanization, age structure. Next, some areas are more vulnerable than others, and some territories are already irreversibly altered. The carrying capacity of a region is a complex issue; we could catch its direction using some degradation coefficient that will be discussed later. Thus in quantitative respect this research will focus on measuring the environmental impact of economic activity trough elaborating of a new integral indicator for Demographic Pressure, consisting of regional gross product, population density, its urbanization, age structure and degradation rate (e.g. deforestation, drinking water availability or soil erosion). The function of these indices acts as force of (economic) activity upon natural sub-regions.

As qualitative basis we develop and have to defend the idea that increased presence of people with their machines is pressure in the ecosystems, which has to be mitigated. Where is this pressure taking place? The Demographic pressure approach is applied on natural regions, i.e. sub-regions, which are formed on geographic (or mental) principles: regionally eligible index depicting the rate of demand on natural resources. The measure of natural region like in the Ecological Footprint index could be not simply its surface but produced biomass.

Some preliminary results

A simplification of the formula has been applied on a country level: the GDP per capita data (Purchase Power Parity method was used) of given country were multiplied with its population density and then divided to its territory (and thus population, economy and territory were integrated on a simple level). At first sight some results weren’t promising. The end number showed, for example, that on every square kilometer the USA creates less money per capita than the world’s average: something that conflicts with our knowledge since we know that USA creates huge amounts of carbon emissions and waste. The same territorial distortion also emerges in the calculations referring to other “country continents”, for instance Russia, China, Brazil, and Australia. This fact could be regarded as a token that the state territory is not appropriate measure in computing the Demographic pressure through GDP and population density. This is one of the main differences between Demographic pressure indicator and other indices like Human development index. On a state level, even when the end results could be explained and initial data are relatively easy to provide, the researcher will hardly respond to the policy information needs.

But this simplified macro calculation has revealed also some interesting results, when countries of similar “character” or region are compared. For example, in the calculations with data for 2007, Demographic Pressure, so expressed, is in Portugal a third higher than in Spain. The Demographic pressure in Bulgaria is 50% lower than in Romania, and Bulgaria has the lowest demographic pressure in the European Union. This fact, in respect with the low GDP per capita and very high biodiversity in Bulgaria, increases the putative plausibility of the indicator. Greece’s demographic pressure is twice as high as in Bulgaria. And Italy has one of the highest demographic pressures in the world: more than 1 million USD per people per square kilometer, along with Switzerland. Just five other countries show such high results: Netherlands, Korea, Japan, Germany, and UK.

The explanation why neighboring countries have different pressure lies maybe in their political history or mentality and not necessarily in the geography or industrial structure. But these are biased notions and very hard to be examined. The better approach is to find a simple procedure for subdividing the administrative territories into natural regions, and to express the Force of human activity more correctly, including also more stuff into it. Then the strategic reasoning comes.

Which factors play role in Demographic Pressure

A power function could be applied in calculating the Force of Activity. The research could start by examining the following indicators:

A. The core impact

1) GDP generated in the respective region (Analytical Approach).

2) Population density;

3) Urbanization rate;

4)  Fertility, Migration, Economic Active Population (people from 15 to 70 years);

5) Roads, km;

6) Trade (Net Import or Economic openness);

7) Degradation coefficient: rate of degradation of a main component supporting the human environment system;

B. Miscellaneous sensitive variables

8) Land use: fallow land percentage, arable land, erosion;

9) Certified environmentally sound practices, (renewable energies, zero carbon buildings, sustainable forestry and fishery e.g.) – to be deducted.

10) Carbon emissions generation;

11) Biodiversity, species number;

12) Neighborhood formation: people living in suburbs, slumps;

13) Noise contamination;

14) Urbanization thresholds, Site formation age;

15) Information assurance (Internet access per people/ per company);

16) Money generation rate (inflation);

17) Industrial production, Construction, Mining;

18) Energy production;

19) Trade centers;

20) Recreation; Tourism.

The powers of the indices will be determined by further weighting of the function. At the first stage the researchers will apply a formula consisting of unified numerators (core), to gain comparative data within this project. At the second phase researchers will return to the regions and will tune their functions and predictions with the sensitive variables.

About the research plan

Five partners have to go through several steps in order to conduct the study because of our lack of basic knowledge about the monetary impact which number of people use on the land. Aggregate statistics about the core Demographic pressure in EU on NUTS 2 level could be accomplished relatively easily on regional level, if we have the formula.

Then the partners, having in sight the Demographic pressure map of Europe, could compare regions with same environments but different developments in this field. Or vice versa. Each will choose three regions to analyze, possibly after the following pattern:

High Mountains (one case)

Mountainous (two cases)

Big rivers (two cases)

Coastal region (two cases),

Marine ecosystem (one case)

Wine-growing or Orchard region,

Flatland with industrial plants,

Forestry area,

Wetland, Lake Ecosystems

Urbanized areas (three cases)

In these regions the partners will discuss the basic strategies for managing the demographic pressure, the possible scenarios, and implications for the population.

In order to facilitate generation of research three research principles are proposed.

1. The initial calculation will be carried out for the smallest region from which the following data could be derived: GDP per capita (production, consumption and trade balance), total area, number of people, roads, and percentage of urban population. A common degradation rate measure proposal will be highly appreciated.

2. The resulting numbers should be provided with analytical considerations.

3. To have in mind from the very beginning that same Demographic pressure could emerge through different combination of money, people and surface (and thus to identify the best allocation).

How to use the Demographic pressure (The two hypotheses)

The first thought hearing the phrase “Demographic pressure” may be a vision of insurgent flows of aggressive people, fleeting from a military induced environmental disaster. It is worth mentioning that the Pressure is continually associated with human Aggression. Seeking with Google, in year 2008 it appears that a PhD in Political Science in Pittsburgh was completed with dissertation “How Demographic Pressure Affects Participation in Inter- and Intra-State Conflict”.

We have evidences from the animal world that the increase in the number of individuals on a limited place is resulting in population stress. Yet we have an alternative assumption, namely that human creativity increased just when the number of people in the Medieval Times had surged in the circumscribed cities. This process corresponds to the formation of information society that came to replace the industrial ages.

And the hypotheses, which could be examined through correlations, yet here the qualitative reasoning precedes the numbers: Transformation of demographic pressure is occurring, when the economy is developing knowledge and technology. The information infrastructure is a kind of “chimney” for the population’s pressure. The quality of local life is improving in this way, but the region’s prosperity is exporting the Demographic Pressure somewhere out there, in the producing emerging world.

Finally and to sum up, we have to conclude whether the estates are becoming richer or whether their natural capital is degrading. When the money flows are examined from the point of view of sustainable prosperity, it will turn out that some economic projects are unfeasible. On the other hand we could discover new places where to develop some projects in recreation branches or bio-agriculture. Some “stress-relieving territories” could be isolated, where new roads and renewable energy generation should be reconsidered. Further, the existence and application of “pressure valves” for the military conflicts in the form of migration or big infrastructure projects could also be examined.